Homes – New Zealand’s answer to Zillow

by Alistair Helm in ,


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The NZ real estate industry witnessed a significant milestone just over 2 years ago when Homes.co.nz hit the market. At that time the launch was significant. Today, two years later the service remains significant, and it is my belief that it will become ever more significant in the years to come.

Here is why.

Homes did just one thing when it launched, and it did it well. That is the mark of a business with big ambitions. It, for the first time allowed anyone, anywhere to see historical property sales records and estimated valuations for any property in NZ …. for free!

Sure, it was initially only for the main cities and it was not a great website and there was no mobile app. But for those who crave this type of information, all of those things were of little consideration. They wanted facts. Facts that had for decades been hidden behind expensive price tags. Remember for a minute, that back then in 2015 if you wanted to get the last sale price for a single property you have to dole out $10 on the website / $2.95 on the app of QV. To get a collection of comparable local sales, twice that amount; and for an estimated valuation $50.

Homes very quickly built a sizeable audience and become the chatter of meetings between friends, colleagues and neighbours. Marketing dollars were not needed when you have a source of information that is like cat nip to anyone who owns a property or wants to own a property or is simply curious about what your landlord’s place is worth!

Homes leveraged this consumer appetite with smart PR stories about every imaginable property fact and took on a smart and approachable marketing head in Jeremy O’Hanlon who was savvy and accessible. The word of mouth grew as did the traffic.

A bit of diversity wouldn't do them any harm!

A bit of diversity wouldn't do them any harm!

Homes is, and continues to be a privately funded start-up and at launch recognised the need to have a seasoned entrepreneur to seek out the initial funding and lead the company, this was when John Holt came on board to support the original founders being Jamie Kruger and Michael Gibbs.

Fast forward two years and whilst I don’t know the ins and outs of the company, I do know from extensive conversations with customers of Homes (agents and users) they are doing well and are on a fast track for the coming years to become a significant force in the NZ real estate marketing arena.

So why do I hold this confident position?

Simply put. What I see in Homes is what I witnessed with Zillow in the US from their launch in 2006 right through to their position today – a 3,000+ employee company with a turnover north of NZ$1 billion and market cap of NZ$7.5 billion. Allowing for the relative population comparison that would provide a potential comparable valuation for Homes in excess of NZ100 million.

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Zillow launched with a simple website (back in 2006 don’t forget there was no apps store, so the web had to do). It provided a simple offering – historical sales data and valuation (Zestimate) for almost every property in the US for free – the first such offering.

The site instantly became sticky (first day topped 1 million page views) as people had an insatiable appetite to see what their house was worth. That audience quickly generated a significant advertising revenue. As so with Homes who smartly set up sponsorship arrangements with key advertisers prior to launch as well as regular ads.

For Zillow the relationship with agents was at first testy – loved by few and hated by many; but it was not long before the smarter agents started recognising that the ad units Zillow could sell next to properties records and Zestimates was a perfect place to pitch to prospective clients. For Homes they established the same service with free agent profiles and premium profile so agents could ‘brag’ of their sales success on individual property records.

With agents recognising the power of the Zillow audience it was not long before these agents started uploading active listings which instantly bore fruit with strong viewing figures as Zillow users started using the portal for property search. At the time, the market back in 2008 was not as well developed with pure property portals in the US. There was an industry site (ala Realestate.co.nz in the guise of Realtor.com which was not owned by the industry but a kind of de-facto industry site) so Zillow had competition, but sadly for the owners of Realtor.com traffic soon switched leading to Zillow fast becoming the most visited website for property even if it did not have a comprehensive source of listings.

However whilst agents wanted to upload listings, the issue for Zillow was the complexity of the listing process in the US – much like so much of things in the US it is simply best to say getting a source of listings is a nightmare with 900+ Multiple Listings Services each of which is unique and holds geographical monopolies that are political fiefdoms. Bottom line was that whilst agents started to love Zillow their broker business owners and these industry listing services were not supportive.

For Homes the issue was similar but different. Accessing listings in NZ is easy (in theory). There are 6 major franchise groups accounting for well over two thirds of all listings, who can in theory provide a data feed of all active listings at the click of a key so long as you have their support. These 6 major groups though are the shareholder owners of half of Realestate.co.nz and to date the support for listings uploaded to Homes is limited to Ray White together with some independent operators outside the major 6.

Demonstration of Homes listing in Auckland - almost all Ray White

Demonstration of Homes listing in Auckland - almost all Ray White

As far as Homes playing to the Zillow playbook, I would judge that they are, where Zillow was back in 2009. Which says they have a lot to do, but I would judge that they will probably start to accelerate to catch up pretty fast. Within two years I would see them being a credible and viable competitor to the key players of Realestate.co.nz and Trade Me and potentially the new entrant of OneRoof.

So, what can the Zillow playbook hold in store for Homes. In terms of property marketing there will come a whole suit of premium advertising products which agents will pitch to sellers as digital continues to grow in relevance in property marketing. In addition as a function of the owners flagging their own home on the site they will be able to actionsmart direct marketing to property owners and prospective vendors. In terms of agent advertising I think they are better developed than any other digital player in NZ today which includes Trade Me and Realestate.co.nz. On top of this then comes the ancillary business opportunities. Zillow created a mortgage origination marketplace, not something that really exists in NZ but certainly a deeper and richer relationship with key NZ banks and financial institutions could be mutually rewarding for Homes.

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A bit more lateral is the pivot from Homes adopting the Zillow playbook to adopting the Zoopla playbook. Zoopla in some ways the UK version of Zillow, has very successfully broadened its business from property marketing to price comparison services, originally around utility and finance services through the acquisition of uSwitch to recently pitching the acquisition of Go Compare a far broader and significantly larger player in the UK market for comparison services. The logic being that once you become a trusted source of information and services of the house as an asset, then you can leverage that to any financial transaction from or to-do-with the house, especially as the house is always the biggest financial asset anyone generally has.

So what if any are the roadblock which sit in Homes way?

Listings. If the real estate industry decided it was not going to support Homes and not syndicate their listings to them as a property portal then Homes will struggle. However I don't think it would be killer blow to Homes, if they can demonstrate to agents that their appeal to clients and customers is as good or better than the current portal players then the power of the agent against the force of the key real estate companies will be the real test.

I’m excited to see what happens over the next 2 years in the real estate marketing arena, there is a lot at stake and some well-established players with a lot to gain and a lot to lose.


So what's been happening over the past 3 years?

by Alistair Helm in ,


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I have been meaning to sit down and reflect what has happened in the NZ real estate market over the past years since I parked up Properazzi back at the end of 2013, and took on the role of Head of Product with Trade Me Property.

As would be expected, some significant changes, and some small changes. So here’s my thoughts.

 

Data

Back in 2013 the best property insights you could research as to historical sales prices and values without reaching for your credit card was at best the monthly aggregated median price by suburb or by region. At the end of 2014 a radical transformation occurred which must have sent shivers down the spines of QV and Core Logic, as first Homes.co.nz, and then shortly afterwards Trade Me Property liberated property sales records giving us for the first time the ability to search for sold prices on any property in the country.

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Homes got the early lead as Trade Me offered the data only on the mobile app, but the gap was quickly filled as Homes launched their app and Trade Me brought data to the website. Homes stepped ahead with an automated valuation model (AVM) for a majority of properties from launch with Trade Me matching with the launch of Property Insights in late 2016.

This is without doubt the game changing event of the past 3 years. Nothing comes close; and nothing has done more to assist buyers and sellers gaining a perspective as to an estimated valuation and historical sales records for all properties. It is appropriate to note that both Homes and Trade Me offer AVM’s only when there is sufficient comparable data. They have both employed sophisticated computer algorithms that churn through property data to create estimated values coupled with confidence factors which means that they are delivering around 60% of all AVM's within 10%. That is to say they can predict the likely sale price to within 10% in 6 out of 10 cases, which is pretty good as a global benchmark.

This democratisation of data has, as would have been expected, been a challenge for the real estate industry. However 2 years on, the majority of agents and agencies have recognised that a better-informed customer is an engaged customer; one they are happy to advise as to the local nuances of the market with the local up-to-date knowledge that can help steer them towards a much closer market appraisal than a faceless computer based AVM.

New Zealand has at last caught up with so many other countries that make available property sales information; thereby saving consumers money and alleviating uncertainty.

 

Digital marketing

This area has been on reflection slow to change (or stubborn to change?). The same two adversarial players of Realestate.co.nz and Trade Me Property are still the main players in town, but not for long I suspect. NZME are lining up their new portal OneRoof (more of this to come) and at the same time Homes, in mirroring the “Zillow playbook” has pivoted from property sales data and estimated valuation to now provide on-the-market listings of property for sale and rent from a growing number of agencies as they head to becoming a fully fledged property portal.

Whilst the Chinese language market is not large, it is relevant and in Auckland significant. Hougarden launched in 2011 has grown and grown to deliver a great digital service, especially as they severed their listings data-feed relationship with Realestate.co.nz back in 2015 and have now become a standalone portal.

In terms of user experience, I have to say that the key players have been slow to evolve, Realestate.co.nz has a new site which they seem nervous to commit to (more to follow on this matter) and I wouldn’t blame them. Trade Me Property has tweaked their website but their main focus has been on their mobile apps which continue to evolve streaking ahead of Realestate.co.nz which has hardly touched their apps in the past 5 years. I am clearly a party to this performance having had responsibility for all digital products at Trade Me over these year, whilst not a defense I would say it has been a learning experience as to the pace of product development at such a leading digital company (more to follow).

In the broader context of digital marketing, Facebook has made huge inroads, attracting the digitally savvy agents who seek to use the platform for marketing properties and more especially themselves as brands – many specialist marketing agencies have sprung up to assist such agents and clearly significant sums of money are now flowing into this area and likely to accelerate in the coming years.

Bottom line is that the past 3 years has not amounted to a radical step forward in digital marketing, more of small tweaks.

 

Industry structure

Little has changed in terms of industry structure. There are more licensed salespeople in the market today than there were 3 years ago. The latest data from REAA shows 12,714 salespeople in November, up from around 11,000 3 years ago. For these salespeople the market is a lot tougher, as back in 2013 annual sales totalled 80,000 and was on an upward path to peak at 95,000 property sales, today it is back down to 74,000 sales per year and heading down.

New players have entered the market mainly focused on trying to challenge with a fixed price model vs commission fees but the reality is that the top 5 real estate companies still represent close on two thirds of the market, a position little changed from 3 years ago.

One aspect of the industry of positive note is the stricter adherence to governance through the REAA and the complaint procedure process. The chart below tracks the annual total of complaints brought to the disciplinary tribunal (being the highest level of discipline within the structure of the REAA) – misconduct being the most serious finding, which for 2017 shows the lowest level since the organisation began. (The 2013 peak was probably more a function of the backlog workload throughput that the REAA took on in the early years and not so much a reflection of a single year).

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I guess the other elephant in the room that has focused the minds of the real estate industry over the past 3 years has been the investigation by the Commerce Commission into allegations of price fixing. This investigation was triggered back in 2013 by the actions and comments made by some companies in the industry in reaction to the decision by Trade Me Property to amend the pricing of listings. The outcome has been costly for the industry with close to $15m in fines levied against 13 regional and national real estate companies.


New Zealand slipping down the rankings of global property price inflation

by Alistair Helm in ,


This may well be the kind of news that we will all may be a little bit pleased to see. For once NZ and especially Auckland are not at the top of the global leaderboard by property price inflation. The Reserve Bank and government officials, I am sure will be somewhat heartened.

This ranking is provided by Knight Frank, one of the global leaders in real estate and their international research department are providers of valuable comparisons of residential and commercial property data around the world.


NZ ranked 27th out of 56 countries in 3rd quarter 2017 Global House price index

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Full report can be downloaded here

At a 5.2% year-on-year house price index inflation the Knight Frank team now assess NZ as heading downwards and place it at 27th place of the 56 countries ranked in the survey. Our neighbour Australia is considerably higher placed at 7th with an annual rate of house inflation of 10.2%.

Tracking the past 5 years in the chart below comparing NZ median price by quarter against Global House Index shows the extent to which the NZ market ran ahead of global index through the past 2 years. It also shows to what extent that the market has come off the boil in the past 9 months, although the final quarter of 2017 is showing a rise. Note: The NZ data in this chart represent the REINZ median price data showing a 4% year-on-year inflation in Q3 2017 vs Knight Frank's at 5.2%.


Auckland ranked 98th out of 150 global cities in 3rd quarter 2017 Knight Frank Global Residential Cities Index

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Full report can be downloaded here

At a 2.7% year-on-year house price index inflation the Knight Frank team now assess Auckland in the bottom third of global cities. Interestingly in the top 20 appears Wellington with a 10.7% annual inflation in 19th place. Our neighbouring cities in Australia see Melbourne at 10th place with a rate of 13.2% and Sydney in 26th place with 9.4%.

Tracking the past 5 years in the chart below comparing Auckland median quarterly price vs Global Index shows the significant inflation ahead of the global index of all 150 cities right up until Q1 2017, the significant decline in property price inflation since then demonstrates how much the Auckland property market has come off the boil in the past 9 months. The comparison of median price as reported by REINZ for the 3rd & 4th quarter year-on-year shows declines. Note: The NZ data in this chart represent the REINZ median price data showing a -0.3% year-on-year inflation in Q3 2017 vs Knight Frank's at 2.7%.


In addition to these two rankings tables Knight Frank has also released a comprehensive report on Global Cities. Auckland is featured as a case study in the report with the following excerpt from Rachel McElwee, Head of Research, Knight Frank New Zealand detailing the developments on the Wynard Quarter and the impact this has on the city.

Auckland: Blurring the lines

"Mixed-use development is reshaping Auckland’s central city, blurring the lines between work and living environments. The largest urban regeneration project currently underway in New Zealand, Wynyard Quarter, is transforming the former industrial port into a mix of residential, retail, leisure, hotel and office space. New types of purpose built spaces will be created such as the innovation hub, housing a campus-style precinct fostering creativity, technology and originality for start-up companies. A diverse range of tenants include the Auckland Theatre Company, financial firm ASB, architects Warren and Mahoney, the Hyatt Hotel Group, and multinational dairy co-operative Fonterra. When completed in 2030, Wynyard Quarter will house approximately 3,000 residents and 25,000 workers. The redevelopment covers 37 hectares of land and stretches three kilometres along the coast. Investment backing for the project came from off-shore, private investment, third sector and government sources. The waterfront could be further transformed if Auckland stages the next America’s Cup in four years’ time".

 


Newspapers have a future. It lies in a symbiotic relationship with real estate

by Alistair Helm in


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The excellent article “The future of newspapers” written by David Williams on Newsroom got me thinking about exactly that: Is there a future for newspapers here in NZ and globally?

I find it somewhat ironic that I ask this question given I spent many years at Realestate.co.nz confidently professing a belief that newspapers would be dead before the end of the decade, however I have to confess that I have somewhat changed my view over recent years.

I can recall so well the many presentations I made to crowded rooms of real estate agents up and down the country, confidently stating “Newspapers are dying.... people in their 20’s don’t read them, people in their 30’s barely read them; their readership is 40 and older and in time those readers will not be around!” Sure it was hyperbole to support my agenda – digital media is the future for real estate advertising. The data certainly supported my assertion and the declining readership trend over recent years has not been arrested. I even recall quoting the then editor of the Guardian who when unveiling new printing presses back in 2006 stated:

as we installed the new Man Roland presses, we knew they were likely to be the last we ever bought
— Alan Rusbridger

However, newspapers are not dead. They are dying; but at the same time evolving. In my view, their world is polarising. In the glitzy corner there is the world of click bait, of which our daily lives are awash – ever more dramatic headlines fighting for our limited attention spam but sadly racing ever faster to the bottom in terms of quality and ad cost, constantly fearing the competitive threat of Facebook. Sadly, so many of NZ’s metro newspapers have chosen this route.

In the opposing corner are the newspapers that still take the time to report and investigate rather than just regurgitate. Those I would place on a pedestal would include The Guardian, The New York Times, The Washington Post – major newspapers with significant backing. I am a big fan of the approach advocated by Gavin Ellis of the Trust structure. Whilst NZ doesn’t have the global scale opportunities to leverage as these major mastheads do, all is not lost. I am more confident that we can expect to continue to see local and regional (and potentially national newspapers) decades from now.

Newspapers have for the past 150 years relied on advertising, it's a symbiotic relationship at the core of their business model. One of the major groups of advertisers newspapers rely upon is the real estate industry. Pre-internet real estate agents relied on newspapers 100% - providing the right medium to the right audience at a cost-effective rate. Buyers valued it as a catalogue of what was on the market and equally sellers liked it as they felt it perfectly promoted their property. Property advertising in print is logical - strong images with clear attributes look great.

However the world has changed over the past decade or two and today newspapers are no longer the medium to showcase all properties on the market, certainly not for large national or regional papers. This is where I come to my point.

Local newspaper serving local communities can and do leverage local real estate advertising as much because properties advertised ‘feels’ right at home for the very reason that the content is hyperlocal. Sandwiched in with the local school events and sporting club news and all the other hyperlocal going’s on in communities real estate is complementary, comfortable, personal and local. Where I live in Devonport we are blessed by a great fortnightly publication the Flagstaff, it is the very epitome of this. If you want to know what is on the market in Devonport, it’s actually easier to flick through the latest edition of the Flagstaff than even to search on Trade Me or Realestate.co.nz. The same I am sure is as true and relevant for the Raglan Chronicle as for the Ruapehu Bulletin or the Te Awamutu Courier. There are 48 free local newspapers across the country which find a symbiotic relationship with local real estate companies, clients and agents.

As for the national or regional papers; in my view their approach has to be different, they can’t be the hyper local newspaper but on a larger scale. As clearly in the case of Auckland with the NZ Herald they can’t possibly offer to profile 9,000+ properties for sale across Auckland. What it can do though is deliver what is such a key part of real estate marketing – the serendipitous moment.

Advertising a property for sale is about reaching out to as many buyers in the market. These are the people who are deeply engaged on Trade Me and Realestate.co.nz. Buyers who set up email alerts and notifications and addictively check their mobile property apps. But not all actual buyers are so deeply engaged at the time, many don’t actually think of themselves as buyers; sure they certainly don’t represent the majority of people who buy property, but they could be buyers if as serendipity happens, they see a property that gets their heart racing, something that kick-starts them into action. This serendipitous moment doesn’t happen online. It happens in more traditional media of newspaper adverts, catching the eye of the reader as they disassemble the numerous Saturday supplements.

I put these thoughts forward as over the past year I have experienced first-hand the value of such real estate marketing – both hyperlocal newspapers and the serendipitous advertising in major metro papers, with significant success.

So, the truth is I have changed my tune over the years. Real estate marketing is about a broad marketing campaign, not simply online which is undoubtedly a critical base, but the complementary use of print media in newspapers as well.

It is just too important a process in the marketing a property not to consider the dual media, and for that reason we in the real estate industry need newspapers, so let’s hope they can survive and prosper.


Clearance rate tracks property market trends

by Alistair Helm in


The latest NZ Property Report from Realestate.co.nz was published at the end of last week. Its value lies in the key market indicators of inventory and listing numbers, providing a guide to the state of the property market and the trends we are likely to see in the coming months. It can be judged to be a forward-looking report as compared to historical sales data from REINZ. As an industry-owned site, Realestate.co.nz is without doubt the most comprehensive window onto the market with pretty much universal support from all agencies.

The January report covering the last month of 2017 was clear in its headline:

All-time low for new house listings across New Zealand while asking prices continue to climb despite increasing total stock numbers

I might argue, that far from being a surprising headline, the notion of new listings being at “all-time low” is something that has perplexed the market for the greater part of the past 9 years since the GFC.

The chart below shows the annual total of new listings for the past 11 years.

The most recent 12 months has seen a total of 118,647 new listings hit the market. The lowest annual total since data was first collected in 2007. Compared to a year ago, new listings are down 4.5%, with 5,500 less properties for buyers to choose from.

For Auckland though, the most recent 12 months has been a slightly bit brighter. A total of 40,870 new property listings have hit the market, up 8% as compared to last year, however nothing like the c. 60,000 new listings per year seen a decade ago. Auckland may well be finding a new balance between a buyers’ market and a sellers’ market as the NZ Property Report stated and the media promoted, but the City of Sails is far from awash with an abundance of listings.   There are currently at this time just under 9,000 residential properties of all types for sale across Auckland – this for a city of 1.377 million people. Pre-2008 GFC there were around 11,000 properties for sale, at the time, judged a fairly balanced market.

Whilst defining the state of the property market by the measures of inventory and new listings and comparing them to long term averages as Realestate.co.nz does is a fair method. I have though long been pondered how best to measure the state of the property market as a valuable guide to future trends. There is certainly no shortage of stats on the market – sales volumes, new listings, days on the market and inventory. Looking afresh over the past few weeks I have been pondering the notion of clearance rate as an indicator. The idea being that the state of the market can be reflected in the proportion of new listings that actually sell. Simply put, what percentage of properties that are listed are sold in a given time period? This is difficult to do in respect of specific properties, but in aggregate, for a specific time period we can look at the number of sales as a percentage of the number of listings; mashing together the REINZ sales data with the Realestate.co.nz listings data. These two data sets pretty much match apples-with-apples as they represent 100% of all licensed agent listings.

The chart below shows the clearance rate for total NZ residential listings from 2008 to date using a 12 month moving total comparison. To my way of looking at it, a fair representation of the activity in the property market over that period.

Peaking at 74% in the middle of 2016 before slipping back to 62% currently. At its worst, at the start of 2009 in the depth of the GFC just 34% of listings were selling.

For Auckland the picture is somewhat similar, although the most recent 2 years has seen a more significant decline; peaking at 76% at the end of 2015 and slumping to below 50% today – so effectively in Auckland today only half of all new listings are selling, a situation not seen since 2011. The market in Auckland has stalled.

However I feel this analysis of clearance rate is only half the story as everyone always rightly wants to know “how will this effect property prices” – far closer to most people’s real concern in many cases than the clearance rate.

So I decided to overlay property price movements on to this clearance rate data using REINZ median prices and their annual percentage change each month.

The result is the chart below for all NZ property spanning the past 11 years.

The split axis allows for the ability to align the data to better see the correlation – looks like a strong correlation. However would I be going too far to say there is a causation?

The logic is not new or rocket science. As the property market becomes more active with growing confidence of buyers and sellers enabled by encouraging support of banks, so the clearance rate rises, and prices start to rise reflective of demand pressure. The opposite being an easing in sales as finance dries up and confidence falls leading to falling clearance rates, flowing through into easing price pressure.

Undertaking the same analysis for Auckland not surprisingly mirrors this close correlation.

However what I found even more interesting is that if I adjusted the clearance rate and instead of using a 12 month moving total (which provides for the smooth even curves), I used a 3 month moving total.

This representation of the Auckland market certainly supports the hypothesis of the NZ Property Report that Auckland is now a buyers market. But this is not a sudden change which just happened at the end of the year. No; Auckland has been in a buyers market for most of the past 6 months and by December it has plummeted with close to just a third of all listings selling. The key question now is what is the new year likely to bring and how will this chart of clearance rate look after the summer?

 

 

 


Property Market Summary - Year end 2017

by Alistair Helm in


It is time for me to get back into the swing of writing articles on the status of the property market in NZ. I thought that since it’s over 3 years since the last such analysis I would start with a bit of an overview and what better time than the close of the calendar year.

 

2017 could best be described in my view as a bit of a ‘steady’ year – certainly not the most dynamic, but then again not a particularly ‘frothy nor exuberant’ year. In this regard the pressure of an overheated market witnessed in 2015 and 2016 seems to have somewhat abated – not I should stress that heat gone away, simply that the pressure valve has been reduced somewhat.

 

I like to starting any analysis with sales volumes, which in my view is the most important indicator. The volume of sales and to a lesser extent the pace of sales, reflect the confidence of property buyers and sellers to engage in the market. In the past year total residential sales look to be at the level of 74,500. A level almost identical to the recent years of 2012 and 2014, and fully 19% down on the recent heights of 2015 and 2016 which topped 90,400.

 

Residential property sales have been falling (month vs month prior year) since June of last year, a consecutive run of 18 months. At that time the 12-month total of sales amounted to 94,631, this has fallen to a level in November of 74,187. That is a fall of 22%. However by analysing the variance trend, it can be seen that rate of decline is slowing and by early next year the trend is likely to be reversed and sales will show year-on-year rises.

 

By then this decline will have represented the second longest consecutive run of falling sales since the turn of the century (the GFC period of May 2007 to Feb 2009 was 22 months of consecutive declines). That GFC period saw a significantly drop in property sales. Total annual sales dropped by close on 50% from 106,000 in the 12 months to May of 2007 to just 53,000 in the year to Feb 2009.

 

Whilst sales volumes are the best indicator of the state of the property market, there is an important denominator that needs to be considered when looking at time-series data, that is the number of actual residential dwellings in NZ over time.

When the Real Estate Institute started collecting monthly sales data from agents back in 1992 there were around 1.2 million dwellings, speed forward to today that number is now over 1.6 million, an additional 400,000 new dwellings. This denominator therefore needs to be laid as a measuring rod against any comparative sales figures. The chart below tracks the residential sales figures over that period as a % of the dwellings in the country at the time to show what proportion sold each month as moving annual total.

Over the past 24 years, the long term average rate is 5.8% of all residential dwellings are sold each year. At the very peak of the market back in the early years of this new century that rose to a peak of 8.5% in 2004, post GFC that figure slumped to just 3.5%, currently at this time we are sitting at around 4.5%.

I have in this analysis kept to the volume of sales as the single data point, this I believe is key in analysing the market as price does tend to follow transaction levels, something I will explore in a future article.

As to the ever present question "so what is the property market likely to do in 2018? - well the fact is forecasting the property market is not an exact science, to back me up in this assertion, I was heartened to hear the Managing Director of the IMF Christine Lagarde make just such a statement in regard to forecasting on a recent podcast from Freakonomics

forecasting is not a mathematics science and is more an art than (then) something else, although there is a huge effort on the part of our teams here to improve and refine. But there are totally unpredictable events and there are things that we simply do not understand, which are related to human nature, with behavior, as the Nobel jury has recently acknowledged by celebrating and acknowledging the contribution of behavioral economists
— Christine Lagarde : Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

If one of the leading bankers of the world recognises the uncertainty inherent in forecasting, who am I to try to second guess as to the future of the NZ property market!


Re-starting Properazzi

by Alistair Helm


It seems strange to look back through the archives of this site and see how much I wrote over a 2 year period between 2012 and 2014. This was when I was searching out my next move after my time leading the development of Realestate.co.nz as its first CEO. During those two years I spent sometime working with Simon Baker at Property Portal Watch, engaging in the wider global landscape of property portals, whilst at the same time commentating on the real estate industry and analysing the real estate market here in NZ on this blog.

 

I’ve not written an article here for close on 3 years, during which time I have been an employee of Trade Me Property leading the digital product team to enhance and grow the product portfolio to support buyers, sellers and agents in the quest to leverage digital technology.

 

That time in Trade Me has now ended, and I find myself free to write again about my passion - the property market and the real estate process. During my time at Trade Me I was not a straight-jacketed; but as an employee I recognised that I was inextricably linked to the brand and the company and it was not right to write the type of opinion pieces I had done in the past. I did though maintain my analytical role, authoring the monthly Property Price Index of sales and rental data published on the site, keeping my hand in to maintain my skills, knowledge and awareness of the property market.

 

Trade Me is an outstanding company, a great team of people with the most amazing culture and my time there was rewarding, challenging and fun. I will follow very closely the future of Trade Me and Trade Me Property especially in the coming years, just as I do with Realestate.co.nz, they are part of my history, something I am proud of.

 

So here I am gently stocking the embers, and taking tentative steps to my future and sharing them on Properazzi.

 

I left Trade Me because I didn’t feel I was doing my best work. I have not though left the real estate industry. I have been in this industry now for close to 12 years and have clearly found my niche. The future will see me stay within this industry and seek out my next career move. More of this to come.

 

So I'm back, with a slightly re-designed Properazzi. I expect to contribute articles that are informed, analytical and I hope interesting. Thanks for stopping by. Follow me on Twitter as this is my most active platform for the full picture of opinions and articles, equally feel free to sign up to my email newsletter (if you're not already an existing subscriber).